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Thread: Danged lies and statistics

  1. #1
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    Danged lies and statistics

    Read a piece on Gabby Giffords on CNN and in the article, she says that the states with the most stringent gun control laws have the lowest levels of gun violence. A counter-intuitive result, I thought, given some famous places like Chicago and whatnot, so I checked out the link provided.

    The link was to her own foundation, which applies an opaque process of data massage to give each state a "point value" based on a number of factors. Indeed, the states with the highest levels of gun control do show the lowest levels of gun violence but we really know nothing about the process, how the ranking system works, how point values are assigned, etc. What we have is an easily digestible and quotable statistic from a source that can be flung out in a debate and it becomes whack-a-mole to figure out how to respond and by that time, what matters is the content of the statistic, not its validity. It is pure propaganda. And it relies on the reader inferring causation from correlation. As I've said to my beginning Econ classes, I can show you a near perfect correlation between annual US GDP and cumulative snowfall in Kazakhstan but no one in their right mind would claim that one causes the other.

    This bothers me because part of my graduate work was in the field of mathematical statistical design. Stuff like this makes me pull my hair out. It is garbage in terms of its descriptive value.

    Probably an esoteric point but this sort of BS is why people just stop listening to so-called "experts" on issues. You can find any statistic you want on any subject and folks just don't have the energy to go track down and evaluate each claim, so they tune out. All you end up doing is preaching to the already converted.

  2. #2
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    That’s an old trick..

    Some of the unfounded conspiracy theories flying around are from a person who quotes a source.. but the quoted source is a made up website with made up information, often the website and information are all orchestrated by same person who needs a source to quote.

    Gabby is pizzed.. she kinda has a right to be pizzed and we aren’t going to talk her into not being pizzed..

  3. #3
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    I was surprised when taking statistics classes how much I enjoyed the process. I hated math, trig, and calculus classes. But statistics made sense to me.

    In upper-level stat classes, we discussed ensuring cause and effect were linked entities. And, there were many theories posited concerning how to describe methods of achieving it.

    I felt for Giffords and her family. I received a severe brain injury and was also put in a drug-induced coma. Instead of removing a portion of my skull to alleviate pressure from swelling, doctors drilled holes in my skull. It's not an issue for me - cause I remember none of it. But, it was very painful for my wife to go through. After two months in the hospital, I was released to outpatient therapy. And, Wifey made me swear I would never ride a motorcycle again.

    Hunter
    I don't care if it hurts. I want to have control. I want a perfect body. I want a perfect soul. - Creep by Radiohead

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by UTAH View Post
    ...... And, Wifey made me swear I would never ride a motorcycle again.

    Hunter
    But then this might solve that issue: https://external-content.duckduckgo....204&ipo=images
    Fred

    "Everyday I beat my own previous record for number of consecutive days I've
    stayed alive."

    'Take care of yourself, and each other.'

  5. #5
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    Statistical analysis can be a very valuable tool aiding the understanding of events. In fact, that aid is in many cases invaluable.

    The fact that statistics can be misused and manipulated by those wanting to create an altered image is not the fault of the mathematics.

    The old adage from Mark Twain gives fair warning: "Figures don't lie, but liars figure."
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” ---Sir Winston Churchill
    "Political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world's ills, and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all." ---John W. Gardner
    “You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.” ---C. S. Lewis

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by FredK View Post
    But then this might solve that issue
    Yer a troublemaker, Fred...You already knew Hunter has a soft spot for Russkie bikes......Ben
    The future is forged on the anvil of history...The interpreter of history wields the hammer... - Unknown author...

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truckman View Post
    Yer a troublemaker, Fred...You already knew Hunter has a soft spot for Russkie bikes......Ben
    You sure that isn't a BMW?
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” ---Sir Winston Churchill
    "Political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world's ills, and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all." ---John W. Gardner
    “You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.” ---C. S. Lewis

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Grubb View Post
    You sure that isn't a BMW?
    My first impression also..

    But.. this looks to be more of an Ivanka, The Donald and Jared ride..

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Grubb View Post
    You sure that isn't a BMW?
    I think it's a Ural, not to be confused with a urinal (channeling SBA here)......Ben
    The future is forged on the anvil of history...The interpreter of history wields the hammer... - Unknown author...

  10. #10
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    You are correct sir! A little snooping turned up the details. I saw that horizontally opposed motor---and snapped on BMW
    "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” ---Sir Winston Churchill
    "Political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world's ills, and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all." ---John W. Gardner
    “You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.” ---C. S. Lewis

  11. #11
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    Saw a Ural and sidecar a few months ago.. was a good looking rig..

    Saw it in the DOD pharmacy/clinic parking lot.. wonder if it’s an active duty person..

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by FredK View Post
    But then this might solve that...
    Ahhh... the link showed a Ural motorcycle - which is a 1939 Beemer that is still produced by Russia (in the Ural mountains). Germany gave the plans to the Russians. I owned two of them, which I rode in Moab and Las Vegas. Mine was dual drive with the rear wheel and the jump seat wheel both powered. It was awesome in the dirt, which it was designed to be.

    Hunter
    I don't care if it hurts. I want to have control. I want a perfect body. I want a perfect soul. - Creep by Radiohead

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